Cogburn broke the track record when coasting to victory in the Grade I Jaipur Stakes during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. He now heads to California as a hot 7-5 Morning Line favorite for the $1,000,000 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club on Saturday, November 2.
Steve Asmussen’s five-year-old son of Not This Time won all three starts this season so far. After a comfortable victory in the Grade II Twin Spires Turf Sprint on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs, he followed-up with his Saratoga romp.
Cogburn made most of the running then eased down under Irad Ortiz, who again takes the ride in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He won again back in Grade II company as he warmed up for the World Championships with an easy victory over dual Royal Ascot Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes hero Khaadem in the 1,200m Ainsworth Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs.
It’s Gate 9 for Cogburn in the all-important Del Mar draw. Those offshore and online Belmont Stakes betting sites that made him favorite for the Jaipur Stakes have a Morning Line price of just 7-5 for yet more success.
The Asmussen barn had the 2011 winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in Regally Ready. Back then, the race was only a Grade II but soon received elite status.
As well as this season’s form, oddsmakers can also point to the fact that Cogburn beat last year’s winner Nobals in the Grade III Troy Stakes at Saratoga before that one went on to World Championship glory.
Who Are the Challengers to Cogburn in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint?
Heading to California out to upset the favorite are 11 other horses, plus also eligibles who act as reserves. There will be a maximum field of 12 at Del Mar with a strong British challenge crossing the pond.
Bradsell (7-2) is next best on Morning Line odds behind Cogburn despite missing the first half of the campaign. Archie Watson’s four-year-old tasted back-to-back Group 1 victories in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York in August and the Flying Five on Irish Champions Weekend.
He placed in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in Paris last month on soft ground. Bradsell still managed to beat old rival Believing (12-1), who has made the show in a number of top European sprints this year.
George Boughey’s consistent filly made the top four in both Royal Ascot Group 1s in the division despite having just four days between them. Believing then landed a Curragh Group 2 in Ireland before a close third during Glorious Goodwood.
She then twice placed behind Bradsell and ran third in the Abbaye. It has been a long campaign for Believing, however, which contrasts sharply with Asmussen’s handling of Cogburn.
Big Evs (also 12-1) won at the World Championships as a juvenile and races in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint before retiring to stud. Mick Appleby’s stable star won the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes during Glorious Goodwood and this easy 1,000m might suit him.
The problem for both Big Evs and Bradsell is their wide draws in Gates 11 and 12 respectively. When Del Mar previously hosted the meet in 2021 and 2017, horses jumping from the low numbers made the show.
Motorious Another Favored for Home Team
Third best, according to the Morning Line, behind Cogburn and Bradsell is track specialist Motorious (8-1). Representing the Philip D’Amato barn, this six-year-old Muhaarar gelding is a dual winner of the Grade III Green Flash Handicap at Del Mar.
Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint 12 months ago when it was held at Santa Anita Park, Motorious wasn’t beaten far and could improve on that effort. He now steps into elite company again, but his experience of the venue is a plus.
There is something to find with Cogburn on Churchill Downs form, but his 2023 second to Nobals obviously reads well. Although failing to show in this last year, he was only 1.5 lengths behind the winner and nearest at the finish.
Richard Baltas switches Ag Bullet (10-1) to sprints after trying the four-year-old Twirling Candy filly over a mile. A Listed Del Mar winner at that distance, she has a Grade II victory over 1,300m on her resume.
With Ag Bullet, it is a question of whether can be as effective at an even shorter trip against a strong transatlantic challenge. Godolphin have campaigned Star Of Mystery (10-1) around the world and, although she was no match for Cogburn in the Jaipur Stakes, she made the show behind him.
Charlie Appleby’s top jockey William Buick now comes over for the ride. Star Of Mystery landed the Grade III Quick Call Stakes over 1,100m next time out at Saratoga. She earlier landed the Group 2 Blue Point Sprint at Meydan in the UAE. It is 20-1 and bigger bar those six rivals.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint 2024 Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Believing (Ryan Moore, George Boughey, 123lbs) 12-1 [UK]
- Motorious (Antonio Fresu, Philip D’Amato, 126lbs) 8-1
- Arzak (Joel Rosario, Michael Trombetta, 126lbs) 30-1
- Starlust (Rossa Ryan, Ralph Beckett, 124lbs) 30-1 [UK]
- Ag Bullet (Umberto Rispoli, Richard Baltas, 123lbs) 10-1
- Star Of Mystery (William Buick, Charlie Appleby, 121lbs) 10-1 [UK]
- Howard Wolowitz (Flavien Prat, Jose D’Angelo, 124lbs) 30-1
- Big Invasion (Frankie Dettori, Christophe Clement, 126lbs) 20-1
- Cogburn (Irad Ortiz, Steve Asmussen, 126lbs) 7-5 fav
- Isivunguvungu (Manny Franco, H. Graham Motion, 126lbs) 20-1
- Big Evs (Tom Marquand, Mick Appleby, 124lbs) 12-1 [UK]
- Bradsell (Hollie Doyle, Archie Watson, 126lbs) 7-2 [UK]
- Nothing Better (Paco Lopez, Jorge Duarte Jr, 126lbs) 30-1 [RESERVE]
- Charcoal (Axel Concepcion, Tracey Wisney, 126lbs) 30-1 [RESERVE]
- Frost At Dawn (Billy Loughnane, William Knight, 121lbs) 30-1 [UK] [RESERVE]
