The latest chapter in the rivalry between Mark Casse’s La Cara and Godolphin runner Good Cheer is front and center in the $600,000 Grade I Alabama Stakes for three-year-old fillies over 2,000m at Saratoga on Saturday, August 16.
Both have already won valuable prizes and return to the Spa after previous encounters in the Kentucky Oaks and Acorn Stakes during the Belmont Racing Festival here in June. Their head-to-head record reads one win apiece in those Fillies’ Triple Crown events with Good Cheer victorious at Churchill Downs and La Cara later making all on a sloppy surface in Upstate New York.
Casse’s daughter of Street Sense likes to dictate the pace with both her career wins at Saratoga going from gate to wire in front. La Cara has the track form, but her running style could prove difficult to maintain over this approximate mile-and-a-quarter distance. She also has competition from within her own stable to contend with here.
Good Cheer for the Brad Cox barn, meanwhile, didn’t pick up when racing wide around the final turn into the home stretch at the Spa like she did in the Kentucky Oaks in May. Both big-name fillies look as though they have sufficiently stout pedigrees for the new trip, but still have questions to answer.
The way in which the Alabama Stakes of 2025 may be run with Casse also entering another filly who wants to be up with the pace in Nitrogen suggests it might stretch the stamina of La Cara. A sloppy track didn’t really explain Good Cheer’s Acorn display as she had won in those conditions prior to that race. She too tackles another opponent from her own barn.
Margie’s Intention, Nitrogen Potentially Better Than Stable Second Strings
While it’s tempting to bill this as another faceoff between La Cara and Good Cheer, their barn buddies are worth a closer look too. Casse also saddles Nitrogen, a recent convert from grass to dirt. Sharing a sire with Good Cheer, this other filly by Medaglia d’Oro won her first five races this year only to get chinned on the wire by Fionn in the Belmont Oaks here last time.
Nitrogen previously romped to victory on the Saratoga slop in the Grade III Wonder Again Stakes. Judging her on that form when beating just a couple of rivals is something oddsmakers for Belmont Stakes betting sites don’t seem worried about, based on Morning Line prices. All of Nitrogen’s best form is on turf, that’s for sure.
A race like the Alabama Stakes demands more from her than beating two horses in a lower grade race on her penultimate start. Nitrogen remains unexposed on dirt, however, and maintained her performance levels since the fall. She made the show in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf having filled the same spot in Canada’s Natalma Stakes.
Cox’s other runner, Margie’s Intention, won the other Fillies’ Triple Crown race, the Grade II Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on a sloppy surface at Pimlico in Baltimore. The daughter of Honor A. P. managed to confirm form with re-opposing third Kinzie Queen when placing behind Fondly in the Delaware Oaks despite being 6lb worse off at the weights.
Dropping Margie’s Intention back in distance just didn’t seem to suit her around Delaware Park. Going up to a longer race like this might actually bring about further improvement from her. Completing the small but select field of six is UAE Oaks heroine Queen Azteca, but she proved no match for the boys in the UAE Derby.
Alabama Stakes 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Margie’s Intention – 8-1
- Good Cheer – 8-5 fav
- Kinzie Queen – 15-1
- Nitrogen – 9-5
- Queen Azteca – 12-1
- La Cara – 5-2
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
There’s a real danger, unless we see a change of tactics on the track, that Casse pair La Cara and Nitrogen could cut each other’s throats by taking each other on up front. That could set things up for a deep closer, but Good Cheer didn’t do that last time here in the Acorn.
At bigger forecast odds, Margie’s Intention has lots of stamina from the sire’s side of her pedigree and could be even better off what could be a strong gallop. She has nothing to fear from old rival Kinzie Queen, while Queen Azteca has most to prove at this level.
WATCH: Alabama Stakes Rivals La Cara & Good Cheer in the Acorn
