Not content with her 17-length romp in the Wonder Again Stakes during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, Nitrogen switches surfaces to grass as a hot favorite for the $500,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes of 2025 over 1,800m at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, July 5.
Mark Casse’s star filly goes up into Grade I company against just six rivals at the Spa track in Upstate New York following her dirt demolition despite a penalty in June. Nitrogen routed two opponents on a sloppy surface, so now bids for a first win at the highest level.
On their Wonder Again meeting, there is nothing to fear from re-opposing third May Day Ready who has 25 lengths to find on the bare form. Morning Line oddsmakers behind Belmont Stakes betting sites and racebooks can only make Nitrogen a short price to continue her unbeaten season.
Seeking a sixth straight win, it looks pretty clear that she has improved past May Day Ready, ahead of the Belmont Oaks of 2025, since both made the show behind Lake Victoria in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in the fall.
Changing from the Saratoga mud to turf is no problem as Nitrogen’s winning sequence includes Graded races on grass in the spring like the Florida Oaks and Edgewood Stakes from the Kentucky Derby meet at Churchill Downs. A filly by Medaglia d’Oro, she’s only improved with each run.
Nitrogen recorded her career best speed figure when running away with the Wonder Again. Handicappers will find it tough making the case for taking her on in this field. Only two other fillies in the line-up arrive at Saratoga for the Belmont Stars & Stripes Festival off the back of last time out wins.
Brown Barn Seeks Record-Extending Sixth Success
Chad Brown farmed the Belmont Oaks during the 2010s saddling four consecutive winners between 2012 and 2015, then a fifth victory in 2017. He has two against Nitrogen here in Memories Of Silver second and third from Aqueduct, Opulent Restraint and Virgin Colada.
When assessing either filly from the Brown barn, it is a question of whether they are good enough for this level. Opulent Restraint, a daughter of Dubawi finished a neck behind Laurelin last time. Prior to that, however, she didn’t make the show in the Florida Oaks, so there’s something to find with Nitrogen for sure.
As for Virgin Colada, she has course experience at Saratoga, but finished behind her barn buddy. This More Than Ready filly was also no match for May Day Ready and Nitrogen during the Breeders’ Cup, so she might struggle in this grade. Brown’s bid for a record-extending sixth victory in the Belmont Oaks of 2025 may need to wait another year.
Regret Stakes winner Fionn could pose the biggest threat to the favored filly, meanwhile. She hails from the Brad Cox barn and improved for stepping up another furlong when landing that Churchill Downs Grade III at the end of May.
Again, the difficulty with Fionn is she could only show behind Nitrogen in the Appalachian Stakes around Keeneland earlier in the spring. She does have the beating of George Arnold’s Totally Justified, however.
Completing the line-up is Graham Motion filly Warming, who now pitches her in at the deep end after her recent Delaware Park claimer success. The barn won this in 2010 with Check The Label, but it demands an awful lot of her.
Belmont Oaks 2025 Post Position Draw
- Warming
- Opulent Restraint
- Totally Justified
- Virgin Colada
- Fionn
- May Day Ready
- Nitrogen
Our Handicapper’s Verdict on the Belmont Oaks
Even if the distance she won by on dirt last time could’ve been exaggerated by the sloppy ground, it is impossible to oppose Nitrogen off level weights. She is the filly in form with the best form. You sometimes have to call a spade a spade, and she should gain a deserved Grade I breakthrough win here.
Those with either the best chance or value of making the show behind her, meanwhile, are Fionn and Opulent Restraint. Sloppy dirt probably wasn’t much good to May Day Ready last time, and she’s better on turf, but her speed figures don’t match the favorite apart from the Breeders’ Cup and she needs to reproduce that now.
WATCH: Nitrogen Sluice up in the Wonder Again Stakes at Saratoga
