Breeders Cup Classic 2025 favorite Sovereignty picked up a mild fever on the eve of his run in the most valuable race during the World Championships at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club on Saturday, November 1. Bill Mott and Godolphin’s latest star three-year-old colt is now a doubt for the $7,000,000 feature Grade I dirt race over 2,000m.
As both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner earlier in the campaign, Sovereignty is the leading horse of his generation. He will now only take on his elders for the first time in California in the Classic if he recovers and responds to medication. This dramatic twist on the eve of the World Championships adds extra spice to the main event of the meet.
Sovereignty, a son of Into Mischief, is one of 10 declared runners in the Breeders Cup Classic of 2025. Half of those are four-year-olds with the field also containing three more younger horses all vying for the crown. Most of those three-year-olds are familiar rivals Sovereignty has beaten before.
As the Belmont result from June shows, he bested both Journalism and Baeza again with the three finishing in the exact same order at Saratoga as in the Kentucky Derby. Nevada Beach for the California barn of Bob Baffert is the other three-year-old in the Classic line-up following his Goodwood Stakes defeat of 2024 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile hero Full Serrano at Santa Anita.
Most of the older horses against Sovereignty, who concede 4lb weight for age, either represent Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher. The former employs five-year-old Contrary Thinking as a pacemaker again for last season’s winner Sierra Leone. Pletcher, meanwhile, fires three bullets at the big race in Antiquarian, Fierceness and Mindframe. Japanese runner Forever Young, third in this 12 months ago, completes the line-up.
Who Wins the Breeders Cup Classic in 2025 if Sovereignty Doesn’t Run?
If forecasters behind Morning Line prices and oddsmakers on Belmont Stakes betting sites have it right, then Fierceness is next best. He looks the pick of Pletcher’s trio following an authoritative three-length success over Journalism in the Pacific Classic over course and distance at Del Mar in August.
It’s worth remembering, however, that the City Of Light colt only finished second 12 months ago to Sierra Leone. That one defeated Fierceness again in the Whitney Stakes during the Saratoga summer meet, but placed behind Pletcher’s other two on runs either side of that victory.
Sierra Leone couldn’t reach Mindframe in the Stephen Foster around Churchill Downs or Antiquarian in the Jockey Club Gold Cup back at the Spa last time. A gate-to-wire all out gallop in the Breeders Cup Classic of 2025 suits the colt by Gun Runner, and the presence of barn buddy Contrary Thinking in the line-up should ensure that.
Whether Antiquarian can reproduce his Saratoga display again remains to be seen, especially as 2024 Belmont second Mindframe unseated Irad Ortiz early on in the race. That drama changed the whole complexion of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Japan’s Forever Young is no slouch either after landing the valuable Saudi Cup over last winter.
What’s clear from the market is the other three-year-olds apart from Sovereignty look up against it here. Journalism, who had shorter Belmont odds, won the Preakness and Haskell Stakes when campaigned away from his old rival for Michael McCarthy. Baeza landed the Pennsylvania Derby, but neither have really stepped out of Sovereignty’s shadow.
Breeders Cup Classic 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Fierceness (126lbs) – 4-1
- Baeza (122lbs) – 15-1
- Nevada Beach (122lbs) – 20-1
- Contrary Thinking (126lbs) – 50-1
- Forever Young (126lbs) – 6-1
- Sovereignty (122lbs) – 6-5 fav
- Sierra Leone (126lbs) – 8-1
- Mindframe (126lbs) – 10-1
- Journalism (122lbs) – 10-1
- Antiquarian (126lbs) – 15-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
This all surrounds the wellbeing of Sovereignty. If he’s well enough to run and produces his best, then he’s the one to beat. Based on last year’s result, meanwhile, Sierra Leone looks value on the Morning Line to confirm the 2024 Classic result with Fierceness and Forever Young based on how this race should again be run.
Of the others, Mindframe is still unexposed at 2,000m and could atone for that early unseating of Irad Ortiz last time. With the other three-year-olds Journalism, Baeza and Nevada Beach needing big career bests, and Antiquarian drawn highest of all, it’s easier to narrow the field.
WATCH: Sierra Leone Beat Fierceness & Forever Young in 2024 Breeders Cup Classic
