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Jockey Club Derby 2025 Preview – Belmont 5th Hill Road Tries Turf Again

Jamie Clark
Jockey Club Derby 2025 preview includes Hill Road

Belmont At The Big Apple continues to host races from its fall meet at Aqueduct Racetrack with the $500,000 Grade II Jockey Club Derby over 2,200m the big turf race in New York on Saturday, October 4. Among seven runners here are two who contested the Test of the Champion earlier in the season.

While Hill Road and Crudo were no match for Sovereignty around Saratoga as the Belmont Stakes result from June shows, connections persist with both on grass. Amo Racing shipped the former from Ireland for a crack at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and he’s been there ever since.

Hill Road made his switch to the Chad Brown barn official in the spring, landing the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes here over 1,800m. He then ran fifth and third to leading three-year-old Sovereignty in two runs at the Spa over the summer before making the show in the valuable Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs.

Beaten just four lengths by transatlantic raider Wimbledon Hawkeye, Hill Road had re-opposing sixth Noble Confessor a further half-dozen lengths in-behind. Although the Jockey Club Derby represents a step up in grade on paper, in practice this is a less competitive assignment for the Quality Road colt.

Like Noble Confessor, Crudo represents Todd Pletcher who landed the 2023 edition of this race when switched off grass to the dirt. As a son of Justify, he could benefit from running over a longer distance after fading into fourth under a 4lb penalty in the Saranac Stakes on his turf debut.

Asbury Park, Game Warrior Potential Improvers

Crudo is better off at the weights with the Brown barn’s second string, Asbury Park, from that 1,700m Listed race around Saratoga now. Subsequent to trailing in last of eight in the Belmont, Crudo ran fourth in the Curlin Stakes at the Spa, so needs improvement.

On breeding, however, there could be more to come from Asbury Park. Despite a swing in weight against him and in favor of Crudo from their last encounter, this Frankel colt is out of the same dam that produced 2019 Jockey Club Derby hero Spanish Mission. Having a brother that won this race sure helps.

While that sibling later excelled in marathon UK events like the Doncaster and Yorkshire Cups, it bodes well for Asbury Park tackling an extra 500m. He’s more than just another bullet for Brown to fire at this invitational contest and could give barn number one Hill Road a run for his money.

Del Mar Derby third Game Warrior ships from coast to coast for Peter Miller, meanwhile. Although he bumped into the same front pair in California that fought out the finish of their previous start, the Game Winner colt posted an improved finishing spot over an additional 100m and got closer to the winner.

From how Game Warrior shaped last time, he also could unlock further progress for going up in distance once again. Completing the line-up here are nine-race maiden A Bourbon For Toby and Canadian raider Hammerhead. Neither has the form or figures to suggest they are anything but longshots in The Big Apple.

Jockey Club Derby 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds

  1. A Bourbon For Toby – 15-1
  2. Asbury Park – 5-2
  3. Crudo – 4-1
  4. Hill Road – 7-5 fav
  5. Hammerhead – 12-1
  6. Noble Confessor – 8-1
  7. Game Warrior – 8-1

Our Handicapper’s Verdict

While Hill Road brings obvious form claims into the race, leading Belmont Stakes racebooks know it and the Morning Line favors him. Brown barn buddy Asbury Park is a real interesting alternative, however, and could confirm his last run with Crudo despite the revised terms now going markedly up in distance.

Noble Confessor didn’t seem to see out the Nashville Derby, meanwhile, as he was in third at the top of the home stretch, but crossed the wire in sixth. One who could make the show instead of the Pletcher pair is Game Warrior, who finished closer to his old Del Mar rivals last time.

WATCH: Hill Road & Crudo Run Behind Sovereignty in Belmont Stakes

Jamie Clark

After more than a decade of picking winners for the biggest races on the planet, pro handicapper Jamie Clark has been involved with our Belmont Stakes project right from the start. A thoroughbred pedigree expert, he has the knowledge of all the horses taking part in this and other major events across the USA and beyond.