Last season’s Belmont Stakes second and third, Mindframe and Sierra Leone, do battle at Saratoga Race Course once again in the $1,000,000 Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup as the Spa’s summer meet draws to a close on Labor Day Weekend. The third chapter of their intriguing rivalry happens in Upstate New York over 2,000m on Sunday, August 31.
This is more than just a Belmont rematch, however, as Sierra Leone faces the re-opposing second, third, fourth and ninth from his Whitney Stakes win in a field of nine. All of those horses go up a furlong in distance from the 1,800m clash earlier this month in Saratoga Springs.
As the Breeders’ Cup Classic hero in the fall, a strongly run mile-and-a-quarter is ideal for Sierra Leone. Chad Brown’s charge should get that again in the Jockey Club Gold Cup as the barn also runs Contrary Thinking as a pacemaker once more. He will doubtless have the same mission as in the Whitney by setting the race up for his stable companion.
After besting one old rival in Fierceness last time, Sierra Leone now faces another horse from the Todd Pletcher barn in Mindframe, who boasts a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Gun Runner colt. They first met over course and distance last summer with the Belmont result favoring Mindframe by a length over Sierra Leone.
Their second encounter on the track came in the Grade I Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs in June when the margin between them crossing the wire was a length again. Does Mindframe have Sierra Leone’s number? It seems to depend on who controls the speed and tempo of their races as no pacemaker made the running here last season or in Kentucky this spring.
Strong Form Case for Mindframe in Jockey Club Gold Cup
If Contrary Thinking can again take Sierra Leone far enough into the race like last time, then oddsmakers could be right in making the Brown barn’s first string favorite on Belmont Stakes betting sites over Mindframe. Morning Line odds don’t have much between the pair, however, and Pletcher, who has two wins in this since 2020, opted to wait for this with his Constitution colt before tackling his old rival.
Fierceness wasn’t up to the challenge of Sierra Leone with the Whitney run to suit. Mindframe remains unexposed over the 2,000m distance of this assignment, however, and he returns to the Spa off an undefeated campaign in 2025 so far. His Grade I Churchill Downs Stakes success down over just seven furlongs from the Kentucky Derby card is a real strong piece of form.
A couple of horses dead-heated for second in the re-opposing Banishing and Bob Baffert’s Nysos. Both have won Grade II contests since. Back in fourth was Book’em Danno, who has landed all three subsequent starts here culminating in Forego Stakes glory just last weekend. Mindframe definitely closed on Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch on his only previous mile-and-quarter start before the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so he’s worth trying over this far again.
He also found plenty for the late pressure applied by Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster when last in action. Mindframe seems a versatile horse as regards the distance he races over, but this race perhaps will inform owners Repole & St Elias Stables about his Breeders’ Cup target. Dropping back to the Dirt Mile is always an option if he doesn’t stay.
Highland Falls, White Abarrio Vulnerable to Younger Legs
Third best, if the Morning Line prices are correct is Highland Falls. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup 12 months ago for Godolphin and the Brad Cox barn. That success was a career best from the five-year-old son of Curlin, but he’s twice been defeated by Sierra Leone since. Left trailing in down in ninth at the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Highland Falls also weakened into second in the Whitney.
More eye-catching in third and nearest crossing the wire was Steve Asmussen’s Disarm. He hails from a barn that has saddled three different horses to a combined four victories in this end of summer meet feature. Highland Falls looks vulnerable to the four-year-olds in against him here and similar comments apply to White Abarrio.
Aged six now, Saffie Joseph’s son of Race Day had his heyday back in 2023 when landing the Whitney and Breeders’ Cup Classic. White Abarrio rolled back the years with Pegasus World Cup glory in Florida this winter but, although 4lb better off with Disarm in the Jockey Club Gold Cup with just a length to find on him from this month’s Whitney result, he’s the oldest in the line-up.
With these older horses looking as though their best days might be behind them, smart bettors will look at longshots on upward curves against the established runners. Highland Falls and Disarm bring poor strike rates in graded races to the table, so genuine value in the market for something else to make the show behind the top two could lie elsewhere.
Suburban Stakes 1-2, Banishing Complete Stellar Line-Up
Besides a rematch between Mindfame and Sierra Leone, the first and second from Independence Day’s Grade II Suburban Stakes, Phileas Fogg and Antiquarian, also meet again. Just a head separated the pair on July 4 over course and distance. Pletcher’s Antiquarian is 2lb better off with the re-opposing winner now and they pulled a similar margin clear of Locked that White Abarrio managed in the Pegasus World Cup.
Based on last year’s Belmont, however, there is something for four-year-old Preservationist colt Antiquarian to find with Mindframe and Sierra Leone as he finished behind them here in fifth. Gustavo Rodriguez saw Phileas Fogg go from gate to wire in front in the Suburban, meanwhile, with the five-year-old Astern gelding just hanging on.
A race like the Jockey Club Gold Cup demands more from him, however, and with Contrary Thinking likely to go forward again, there could be a real burnup on the front end. David Jacobson’s Banishing, who caught the eye behind Mindframe at Churchill Downs and was behind Antiquarian in the Grade III Blame Stakes there, completes the field.
Another five-year-old involved, the Ghostzapper gelding landed the valuable Grade II Charles Town Classic last weekend. It’s a swift turnaround for Banishing after what has already been a busy campaign, though. This is his tenth run of the season, one more than last year, and he faces a tall order with just an eight-day break between assignments.
Jockey Club Gold Cup 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Disarm – 15-1
- Highland Falls – 5-1
- Sierra Leone – 8-5 fav
- Mindframe – 2-1
- White Abarrio – 8-1
- Contrary Thinking – 50-1
- Phileas Fogg – 15-1
- Antiquarian – 12-1
- Banishing – 15-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if last season’s Belmont form was borne out at the Spa again. Mindframe held Sierra Leone by a length on that occasion and again in the Stephen Foster. Adding a pacemaker muddies those waters now, but Pletcher’s colt arrives fresher and unexposed over the 2,000m distance.
With those in-behind Sierra Leone in the Whitney here last time looking vulnerable, Highland Falls and White Abarrio because of their age, and Disarm being worse off at the weights, something else could make the show. Antiquarian, fifth in the Belmont, can reverse Suburban Stakes form with Phileas Fogg at the very least.
WATCH: Mindframe, Sierra Leone, Antiquarian Run in the 2024 Belmont Stakes
WATCH: Highland Falls Winning the 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup
WATCH: Sierra Leone Beat Highland Falls, Disarm, White Abarrio in Whitney Stakes
