The $400,000 Grade II Suburban Stakes over 2,000m on Independence Day sees a couple of horses who just missed the show in last year’s Belmont Stakes return to Saratoga 13 months on. Honor Marie and Antiquarian ran fourth and fifth in the final leg of the 2024 Triple Crown, but must improve on that.
There’s a very simple reason why too. Framing the weights for this handicap at the Spa is Locked. Todd Pletcher has three wins in this race in as many seasons and the four-year-old colt was most impressive in landing the Santa Anita Handicap over the same distance in the spring. Locked is the Morning Line favorite with oddsmakers.
We take any chance we can get to look back over past Belmont Stakes results here with the Pletcher barn’s other runner Antiquarian a couple of lengths behind old rival Honor Marie last June. The Test of the Champion should be one of the strongest pieces of three-year-old form each season. Last year’s edition was no different.
After earning victory in Upstate New York, Belmont winner Dornoch followed-up in the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. He confirmed form with the second Mindframe, while Triple Crown second and third Sierra Leone went on to Breeders’ Cup Classic glory in the fall.
Mindframe, yet another inmate of the Pletcher barn, beat Sierra Leone once again in the Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs just days before the Suburban Stakes of 2025. With last year’s Preakness and Kentucky Derby winners Seize The Grey and Mystik Dan back in sixth and seventh, the 2024 Belmont looks very strong.
Honor Marie, who achieved a Listed marathon win over a mile-and-a-half during the Kentucky Derby meet, is 2lb better off with Antiquarian from that encounter. Pletcher’s main bullet is definitely Locked now.
Pimlico Special Another Form Line
Turning away from Saratoga form for the moment, the first, second and fourth from the Grade III Pimlico Special Stakes all step up. Victory in Baltimore went to Awesome Aaron that day, but Norm Casse’s six-year-old Practical Joke gelding looks vulnerable at the revised weights.
Re-opposing runner-up Phileas Fogg now receives 4lb with less than a length to find on that run. An extra 100m in the Suburban Stakes of 2025 could make all the difference to Gustavo Rodriguez’s five-year-old by Astern.
Back in fourth in the Pimlico Special was San Siro, who has a minor win over the distance, but didn’t perform as well in Maryland as his previous run. Brendan Walsh’s four-year-old Classic Empire gelding placed in the Ben Ali Stakes around Keeneland.
San Siro meets Phileas Fogg off the same terms, but finished six lengths adrift. Although better off with Awesome Aaron, he must find significant improvement to get back into the show in a higher grade and deeper race
Two others run off bottom weight in the Suburban Stakes of 2025 in Disarm and Bendoog, who are no strangers to each other. Steve Asmussen trains the former. Disarm placed in the Travers Stakes over course and distance here in August 2023, but his latest victory came over Bendoog in a minor race around Oaklawn Park this spring.
Bill Mott saddled the latter to second place in this very race behind Crupi last season. Bendoog shares a sire in Gun Runner with Locked and Disarm, so another big run from him back at the Spa could well be on the cards.
It’s a competitive edition of this graded handicap, but Locked produced the standout performance when routing his nearest challenger by eight lengths in California. Ignoring his subsequent run over too short a distance looks smart.
Suburban Stakes 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Phileas Fogg (120lbs) – 5-1
- Disarm (118lbs) – 8-1
- San Siro (118lbs) – 20-1
- Locked (124lbs) – 8-5 fav
- Bendoog (118lbs) – 12-1
- Honor Marie (120lbs) – 15-1
- Antiquarian (122lbs) – 4-1
- Awesome Aaron (124lbs) – 7-2
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
Of those carrying the heavier weights, Locked looks the one to beat if translating his Santa Anita form from coast to coast. The Morning Line suggests there might be some Across The Board and longshot value for the show here, however.
Phileas Fogg should go well from the inside gate and off better terms with Awesome Aaron from Pimlico. A strict interpretation of last season’s Belmont result, meanwhile, suggests Honor Marie should have the beating of Antiquarian. Bendoog placed here last year, so another big run can’t be ruled out.
WATCH: Bendoog Finish Second to Crupi in the Suburban Stakes
