On paper at least, the $1,000,000 Whitney Stakes of 2025 over 1,800m at Saratoga on Saturday, August 2 is a rematch between two who made the show in last season’s Belmont – Mindframe and Sierra Leone.
Since their first encounter at the Spa in June of 2024 when they crossed the wire behind Dornoch, these two horses have registered Grade I victories. Sierra Leone went on to Breeders’ Cup Classic glory for Chad Brown at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club when his stamina proved decisive off a strong pace.
Todd Pletcher took a more patient route to the top with Mindframe, however. He flew home on a sloppy surface, getting up at the wire in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby day, then returned to the Bluegrass State for another top-level win. The Stephen Foster ended with the same result as the Belmont Stakes from last year with Mindframe beating Sierra Leone by a length.
In a competitive field of 10, however, the Whitney Stakes in 2025 is more than just a rematch and third chapter to this rivalry. The Pletcher barn also runs fellow four-year-old Fierceness who landed a couple of Grade Is over the summer meet here last season. He beat Sierra Leone by a length in the Jim Dandy over course and distance, then just held 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna a head in the Travers Stakes.
Although Sierra Leone avenged that loss during the Breeders’ Cup and Fierceness found the Metropolitan Handicap too much of a speed test last time, going back up in distance will suit the City Of Light colt. All three big guns carry co-topweight in this contest, alongside Godolphin’s Highland Falls and Pegasus World Cup hero White Abarrio, so it’s a puzzle for oddsmakers, handicappers and bettors alike.
Close Call in Competitive Edition
Despite being a Saratoga local, Brown has never won this race. If he’s to add the Whitney Stakes of 2025 to his resume, then Sierra Leone must inflict defeat on the Pletcher pair. Coolmore’s four-year-old Gun Runner colt last landed an 1,800m race in the spring of last season at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Based on how he shapes in his races, Sierra Leone needs the pace to collapse in front of him. It would appear that Mindframe has his number both on past Spa and Churchill Downs form. On that basis, Belmont Stakes racebooks prefer both Pletcher horses on this occasion with Fierceness the Morning Line favorite.
Oddsmakers don’t think there’s much between all three with 2023 Whitney Stakes winner White Abarrio best of the rest. Only two horses older than five have been successful here since 1981, however, and that suggests Saffie Joseph’s runner is vulnerable to younger legs.
Barn buddy Skippylongstocking is of an age with White Abarrio, meanwhile, and yet to earn victory at the highest level. After conceding 4lb to Highland Falls in last season’s Oaklawn Handicap, the former now meets Brad Cox’s runner off 6lb better terms. Getting in amongst the favored trio really will take something special from these older horses.
Brittany Russell’s Post Time made the show in this 12 months ago and placed in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but looks in a deeper race this time around. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he confirmed last year’s form with Skippylongstocking off the same terms. Steve Asmussen runner Disarm, and longshots Mama’s Gold and Contrary Thinking complete the field.
Whitney Stakes 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Mindframe (124lbs) – 5-2
- Skippylongstocking (122lbs) – 10-1
- Highland Falls (124lbs) – 8-1
- Mama’s Gold (120lbs) – 50-1
- Sierra Leone (124lbs) – 2-1
- Disarm (120lbs) – 15-1
- White Abarrio (124lbs) – 4-1
- Contrary Thinking (120lbs) – 50-1
- Fierceness (124lbs) – 9-5 fav
- Post Time (120lbs) – 12-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
This is tough and as good a Grade I for older horses as there’s been all year. Choosing between the Pletcher pair is almost a coin toss. Both Fierceness and Mindframe have beaten Sierra Leone before, so the suggestion for a bet is a Quinella containing the barn buddies.
Staying power, not speed is the attribute Brown’s big gun brings to the table. Sierra Leone can make the show again, but seems to lack the gears for 1,800m races. If anything can shock the market principals, and it looks unlikely, then Post Time might be the one at a bigger price.
WATCH: Mindframe, Sierra Leone Run in the 2024 Belmont Stakes
