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Adam Haynes

Our seasoned track specialists can help you make the right Belmont Stakes picks. More than simply pointing toward a few different horses to bet on, our expert handicappers have provided exclusive, free Belmont picks covering a wide range of markets.

Who are the Belmont Stakes Favorites in 2025?

Our experts have provided their Belmont Stakes picks for 2025 below. Before diving into those, it’s essential to understand who the favorites are for the Belmont. Specifically, the outcomes of two other horse races, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, influence the betting landscape, as they are the other components of the Triple Crown.

Sovereignty

Any Kentucky Derby winner spared backing Churchill Downs up after just two weeks by skipping the Preakness commands respect. That is Sovereignty, who overcame a bad start in the first leg of the Triple Crown. He picked up Journalism in the home stretch and sluiced through sloppy conditions to win going away. Drawn low now and big chance.

Journalism

Went one better than in the Kentucky Derby with success in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico latest. Showed determined attitude to burst through before the wire, but now faces third Triple Crown race in five weeks. Could be delivered later than at Churchill Downs, based on subsequent Baltimore run. High draw a negative.

Baeza

Kept fresh for the Belmont since finishing third in the Kentucky Derby. Almost ran down Journalism on that occasion after a bad start. If jumping from the gate better, then every chance of turning the tables. Drawn next to his old rival now. Not that far behind Sovereignty either.

2025 Belmont Stakes Picks And Predictions From Our Handicappers

Rather than simply focusing on one horse when making their expert Belmont Stakes picks and analysis, our experts cast a net a little wider. In addition to futures or straight-up win wagers, here are some other markets at the best Belmont Stakes racebooks to consider.

Top Picks for Belmont Stakes to Win

The “to win” bet involves picking a horse to cross the line first and being declared the official race winner. It’s the easiest of all Belmont Stakes selections to understand. And one of the more popular bets from a selection of wagers available at online horse betting sites.

Wagering on this market is easy – simply make your pick among horses running this year, select your stake, and press bet before post time.

Bet To Win – Sovereignty

Sovereignty silks A low draw has produced the winner in four of the last eight years; so, Gate 2 is ideal for Sovereignty. He didn’t get the best of starts in the Kentucky Derby, but came from behind despite the mud flying. A reduced Belmont Stakes distance of 2,000m looks his ideal distance, based on how he shaped at Churchill Downs and prior to that in the Florida Derby.

Skipping the Preakness, unlike old rival Journalism, could prove a shrewd move from owner-breeders Godolphin and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. It gives him a five-week break between runs, which could make all the difference. Sovereignty appeals most to follow-up with his form franked in the meantime.

Belmont Expert Picks for a Top 3 Finish

Did you know you can wager on a horse to finish 2nd (place) and/or 3rd (show)? Our handicappers also provide Belmont Stakes picks 2025 for horses that may have the staying power necessary to finish anywhere in the top 3.

These wagers are available to you as pari-mutuel bets at our top recommended bookies. Look out for the option to get place or show bets down alongside Across the Board (ATB) wagers. The latter requires x3 your stake to cover all three possibilities. They are available among other Belmont Stakes odds and bets at offshore bookies.

Across the Board Bet – Baeza

Baeza silks While Journalism did well in the Kentucky Derby and then landed the Preakness Stakes, Baeza almost took second at the Churchill Downs wire. Granted a better break from the gate, he would’ve placed rather than just making the show. Even if Journalism has won the middle leg of the Triple Crown since, it doesn’t make sense that there’s such a difference in price.

For many bettors and handicappers, Baeza’s relative freshness is a factor in his favor. Going Across The Board looks a smart play in light of that. He does still have something to find with Sovereignty, yet both jumped off poorly last time. Covering all bases for a Win, Place and Show is the way to go.

Show Bet – Rodriguez

Rodriguez silks Bob Baffert is a three-time winner of this, so Rodriguez has to be one of the Belmont Stakes picks this year after his Wood Memorial success when last in action. That Aqueduct win should’ve punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby, but a minor setback saw him miss Churchill Downs.

It also looks significant that Baffert didn’t run Rodriguez in the Preakness, preferring instead to wait for this. As yet unproven in a Grade I and lacking the level of form demonstrated by the most favored runners, the safe bet with him is to make the show. Rodriguez is a better value wager for a top 3 finish than Journalism.

Belmont Stakes Longshot Picks

A longshot bet – in other words, a horse priced as a rank outsider by oddsmakers – may appear among our Belmont Stakes 2025 expert picks. These are not favorite horses by any means but can be picked, not necessarily to win the race, but perhaps to place or show.

Previous performances examined in Belmont Stakes results demonstrate that some longshot picks have done well in recent years. Skippylongstocking (+2000) and Joevia (+3000) finished third in 2022 and 2019, respectively. In 2014, Commissioner (2nd) and Medal Count (3rd) were both priced at +2000.

After Dornoch (+1770) sprung a surprise in the race last year, this may indicate that outsiders can make for decent Belmont free picks.

Longshot Bet – Heart Of Honor

Heart Of Honor silks All chance of winning the Preakness went when Heart Of Honor fell out of the gate. This British raider made late gains into fifth, however, but was never near to challenge Journalism. His cause isn’t helped by jumping widest of all from Gate 8 in the Belmont now, yet he has always seen out his races on dirt strongly.

The fact that Jamie Osborne keeps Heart Of Honor stateside for this suggests he believes the horse capable of better. Extensive schooling of American starting gates is how his trainer approaches the tasks of improving. Earlier placed efforts in the UAE 2000 Guineas and UAE Derby hint that Heart Of Honor is a longshot worth a second look at.

Exotic Belmont Stakes Picks 2025

Exotic bets, while slightly more complicated, are certainly not difficult to get the hang of. These wagers, which you may also find recommended alongside other Belmont Stakes expert picks, include Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.

The most appealing aspect of exotic wagers is that they usually pay out handsomely when you get them right. The trade-off is that they are more difficult to nail. This is because your predictions are based on more than one horse finishing among the top two or three at the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Exacta Picks

You’ll need to predict the horses that finish 1st and 2nd in the right order to win an Exacta bet. As always, our handicappers will provide their Belmont Stakes free picks for Exactas. These will help if you are uncertain about whom to bet on.

When learning how to bet on the Belmont Stakes, you may find a natural alternative to an Exacta is a Quinella wager. With this bet, you must predict the horses that finish 1st and 2nd. But it can be either way. The lower risk, however, means the payout will not be as high.

Exacta Bet as a Quinella – 2 & 6, 6 & 2

The two horses featuring in Belmont Stakes picks for the Exacta, or in this case Quinella, are Sovereignty (2) and Baeza (6). With both the Kentucky Derby winner and third kept fresh for Saratoga, rather than taking in the Preakness en route, they have solid chances.

Both overcame those poor starts at Churchill Downs to make the show. Splitting the pair was Journalism, whose effort in the home stretch before the wire flattened out. He was lucky to just hold on to second from Baeza, who could easily turn the form about.

Belmont Stakes Trifecta Picks

Our Belmont Stakes expert picks 2025 for Trifectas are also available completely gratis to our readers. With Trifectas, you must choose three or more horses to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in perfect order. This is an extremely tough proposition – the payouts, however, make it worthy of consideration.

In smaller fields, the probability of landing a Trifecta will be more favorable to those making Belmont race picks. However, this will also be reflected in any payouts.

Trifecta Bet – 2, 6 & 3

Joining Sovereignty (2) and Baeza (6) in the trifecta picks is another fresh horse Rodriguez (3). If Bob Baffert’s runner is over the minor setback that caused him to miss the other Triple Crown races, then he can make the show and get in amongst the Kentucky Derby horses.

Belmont Stakes Superfecta Picks

To get paid out on Superfectas Belmont Stakes picks, you must accurately predict the horses that finish 1st to 4th in perfect order. It’s not an easy wager to land but again, the payouts will be pretty tasty if luck is on your side.

Another thing to consider before picking horses for a Superfecta is the field size. The more horses in the running for one of the biggest three-year-old races in the world, the tougher it will be to predict.

Superfecta Bet – 2, 6, 3 & 7

Always a tricky task, but completing the Superfecta selections this year alongside Sovereignty (2), Baeza (6) and Rodriguez (3) is Journalism (7). These are simply the four horses with the best form. Journalism could miss out on the show this time, however, after two hard races in a short space of time with the other three fresher.

Key Stats for Belmont Stakes Picks And Analysis

We’re only interested in providing Belmont Stakes picks that consider the bigger picture. Rather than focusing only on question marks over speed or post positions, we take everything that could potentially affect the course of the race into account. Then, and only then, do we deliver our picks for race day.

Speed & Form

Our experts study the performance of horses in previous races – such as the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and prep races – to paint a picture of their standing before the Belmont. Speed and form are two of the key areas our horse racing experts consider when looking over this year’s betting favorites and other contenders.

Jockeys & Trainers

Handicappers look to establish the jockey and trainer combination before delivering their take on whether horses qualify as suitable Belmont Stakes picks. Horses with a better standard of trainer and jockey enjoy better Belmont Stakes results over time than horses without. Horse owners are being further incentivized by record-breaking bonuses in 2024’s edition.

Post Positions

The Belmont Stakes post positions draw determines where a horse starts from and, by nature, can affect who wins the race when it comes to the crunch. It is something you do not want to sleep on when handicapping this race.

Fitness & Suitability

Some horses may have looked peerless in races heading to the Belmont Stakes. But they may be carrying injuries. The demands of the Test of the Champion won’t suit every horse. Our picks you can place at horse racing betting sites consider the shape of a horse before they make their way to the post.

Track & Conditions

In addition to weather and other uncontrollable external factors, the race being moved from Belmont Park to Saratoga Race Course means handicappers must also consider new variables – other than how to buy Belmont Stakes tickets – when making Belmont picks.

Where You Can Find Other Pro Handicappers’ Belmont Stakes Predictions

While we are proud of our Belmont Stakes 2025 picks and predictions, we would never dissuade you from looking at others elsewhere. You can find some credible, alternative sources covering advice and tips for the Belmont online. This may also help you in your endeavors!

Checking out media outlets is also a good idea. For example, NBC Sports and ESPN for news, stats, and data about the Belmont Stakes race. The official NYRA site covers Belmont meet data, for example, which is handy to have by your side. Timeform US is another source worthy of looking at, too.

News articles on the famous American Horse Racing Triple Crown race are available. They increase in volume a little closer to June. Everything from key contenders to other Belmont Stakes picks and predictions are covered. More than this, there are plenty of reputable publications offering this data without charge.

What Goes into Our Free Belmont Stakes Picks

We provide thoroughly researched Belmont Stakes predictions and picks. To achieve that, our experts study every horse in great detail. Alongside that, we analyze various other factors and figures – all of these contribute to our betting recommendations for the race.

Post Draw

Experienced horse bettors know that the draw can make or break a horse’s chance of winning the Belmont Stakes. Or any other race, for that matter. If the gate draw puts even the strongest candidate in an unfavorable position, they have it all to do to stay on the right side of bettors when Belmont Stakes payouts are confirmed.

Positive Pedigree

Studying the pedigree of a candidate is essential for any handicapper who wants to cover all angles. This is done before making Thoroughbred horse picks. A horse’s lineage can tell us a lot about their chances. Our Belmont Stakes analysis may show that horses from dams and sires that have performed well in this race may be capable of repeating the feat.

Pre-Race Performances

From prep races to the Preakness Stakes, our handicappers spend time assessing the best performers heading to Belmont Park (or Saratoga Race Course). While there will naturally be a lot of attention paid to previous Belmont winners, we also like to see horses that progressively improve over time.

These are just some of the considerations that go toward making selections for the correct horses. This is where to find well-researched picks.

FAQs

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Adam Haynes

Reviewing all the offshore racebooks and betting sites is Adam. If you want to know something about one of our gambling partners, then he's got the lowdown.